ANALYSIS OF ANTHROPOGENIC RISKS’ CHARACTERISTICS DISTRIBUTION MODELS BY STATISTICAL DATA OF ACCIDENTS AND DISASTERS AT COMPLEX CRITICALLY IMPORTANT OBJECTS 

Ostreykovskiy Vladislav Alekseevich, doctor of technical sciences, professor, sub-department of computer science, Surgut State University (628412, 1 Lenin street, Surgut, Russia), ova@ivt.surgu.ru
Shevchenko Elena Nikolaevna, candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, associate professor, sub-department of computer science, Surgut State University (628412, 1 Lenin street, Surgut, Russia), elenan_27@mail.ru

519.87

The functional relationship of number of accidents and damage (death toll) is discussed. The analytical dependences of quantitative values of the frequency of accidents and disasters are approximated by various distributions. The results based on statistics of fires, explosions, emissions of harmful chemicals and dam breaks are given. Also two types of socially significant technological objects – aircraft and nuclear power plants are considered. According to the results obtained, it is highly significant to use the values of technological risk at the stages of design and operation of highly complex crucial systems.

approximation, accident, model, catastrophe, technogenic risk.